Община Две могили

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Population

      Until 09 July 2010 the population of Dve Mogili Municipality is 10 255 people, from which 4 450 live in the town of Dve Mogili. 5 058 are males and 5 197 are females of the total population. It is 0,14% of the population in the country and 3,85% of population in the Ruse District. The population's density is 34 people per one sq km.

Population in Dve Mogili

Year Population by address MEN WOMEN
2005 11 628 5 612 5 863
2006 11 219 5 491 5 728
2007 10 959 5 369 5 590
2008 10 749 5 298 5 451
2009 10 479 5 172 5 451
2010 10 255 5 197 5 058

      The proportion of urban to rural population is 43.39% to 56.61% and it is quite different than the national average, which is 68% to 32%. People under the age of 18 are 14,72%, the active population is 55,90% and the inactive population is 29,38%.

Population and Dynamics of the population in Dve Mogili:

Village Population by address - from 2005 Population by address - from 2007 Population by address - from 2010
DVE MOGILI 4719 4549 4450
BANISKA 1352 1332 1267
BATISHNITSA 797 737 686
BAZOVETS 1035 1016 921
KARAN VARBOVKA 522 496 428
KATSELOVO 991 928 836
MOGILINOo 396 364 270
OSTRITSA 398 371 334
PEPELINA 40 38 35
POMEN 529 485 448
CHILNOV 599 555 494
SHIROKOVO 97 88 86
TOTAL 11475 10959 10255


Population's Dynamics by settlements

     The tendency in reducing the population is getting stronger and it is caused by the negative population growth. The population is decreasing in all villages in the municipality. This demographic problem, which is typical for the country, could be seen in Dve Mogili, especially the serious aging among the active population, negative population growth, inner migration and emigration. On the background of the rapid reduction of the total population in the municipality, the demographic processes would lead to the depopulation of some of the villages. This is a serious problem and it is necessary to be taken some prompt actions for rebirthing the Bulgarian village and improving the living conditions in it.

     The number of the born children in Dve Mogili Municipality in 2005 was 70, in 2007 - 95 and in 2009 - 92. The number of dead people has a decreasing tendency. In 2005 250 people died, in 2007 - 217 and in 2009 - 209.

     The average annual growth rate is as follows:

  %
Dve mogili -9.58%
The villages in the municipality -13,52%
Birth-rate for the municipality 9,26%
Death-rate 20,38%
Growth in population -11,40%

     From 16,78 in a thousand in 1997, the coefficient of the total mortality of the municipality reduced to 8,35 in a thousand at the end of 2000. But in 2005 it increased to 21,28 in a thousand and for 2009 it reduced again - 20,38%.

      The low growth of the population that has formed in the municipality is result of the low birth-rate and the tendency of increasing the total mortality. The birth-rate decreasing and the death-rate increasing at the same time lead to a very unpleasant development of the population growth - 11,40%. A huge role in the demographical development in Dve Mogili Municipality during the last few years has the intensive outer emigration.

      In the years of the transition, the age structure of the population in the municipality is getting worse. The reduction in the birth-rate and the negative growth in population are affecting extremely unpleasant - The percentages of the active population and the younger people are decreasing, while the elderly people keep up their number comparatively constant.


Division by sex and settlements to 09 July 2010

Village Number Men Women
DVE MOGILI 4450 2207 2243
BANISKA 1267 622 645
BATISHNITSA 686 331 355
BAZOVETS 921 472 449
KARAN VARBOVKA 428 195 233
KATSELOVO 836 425 411
MOGILINO 270 126 144
OSTRITSA 334 151 183
PEPELINA 35 18 17
POMEN 448 223 225
CHILNOV 494 250 244
SHIROKOVO 86 38 48
TOTAL: 10255 5058 5197

      The changes that occurred in the age structure of the population are very serious. There is an increasing process of the demographic aging, which is expressed by the progressive reduction of the young population, and growth in the middle age and the old age.

Structure of the population in Dve Mogili Municipality according to age till 09 July 2010

Age Number
Under 7 years old 551
From 7 to 13 years old 553
From 14 to 17 years old 406
Women from 18 to 57 years old 2 589
Men from 18 to 62 years old 3 143
Women over 60 years old 1 901
Men over 63 years old 1 112
Total 10 255

     The tendency in reducing the birth-rate got really acute forms and the reduction itself happened for a very short period of time. Because of this the changes in the age structure of the population are very drastic. The share of the young population has fallen from 6.90% in 2006 to 14,72% in 2010. The share of the active population has increased from 27,92% to 29.38%.

Year Total Young population (%) Active population (%) Inactive population (%)
2000 100.0 18.70 47,86 33.44
2001 100.0 18.50 49.82 31.68
2002 100.0 18.09 50.23 31.68
2003 100.0 18.01 51.81 30.18
2004 100.0 17.42 52.22 30.36
2005 100.0 17.07 53.65 29.28
2006 100.0 16.68 55.31 28.01
2007 100.0 15.83 55.09 29.08
2008 100.00 15.40 55.34 29.26
2009 100.0 14.91 56.05 29.04
2010 100.0 14.73 55.89 29.38


Structure of the population according to the ability to work

      This means that the young generations which will replace the active people and the middle-aged active people at the moment are decreasing more and more. At the same time the pensioners are increasing.

      The demographical index shows serious tendency to negative growth of the population, aging, decreasing the number of the active population, losing the young people and the high-qualified specialists, poor quality of the manpower structure.

      Ethnic Characteristics of the population in Dve Mogili according to the last census (in 2001)

Ethnic group Total for Dve mogili (%) % according tothe total data for the area
Bulgarian 49.54 80.87
Turkish 30.96 13.92
Gipsy 19.50 3.75
Others 0 0.25
Not defined 0 0.81
Not shown 0 0.40
Total 100% 100%


      From the graphic below we can see that only for 5 years there is a big change of the ethnic structure in favor of the turkish population, which has increased with 3,45% and the gipsy population has increased with 5,76%.

      As it is known, the information for the ethnic structure from the census from 2001 shows data according to the people’s determine status and do not show the real proportions in the ethnic groups. These differences are strongly shown in the gipsy ethnic group.

      The registered unemployed people till 01 September 2010, according to the Bureau of the labor in Dve Mogili are 706. The number of registered unemployed people with no rights for financial compensation, who are 514, is still high. The number of registered unemployed people with rights for financial compensation is 192.

      The registered unemployed active people between 16 and 44 years old, who are 251 or 35,56% from the total registered people have the biggest number. The relatively high shares of the registered unemployed people, at age above 55 are still high. They are 231 people, which is 32,72% and from 50 to 54 years old - are 130 or 18,41% from the registered people. The people between 45 and 49 years old are 94 or 13,31%.

      The tendency of higher share of the registered unemployed women is kept. They are 1 032 or 54,39 from the registered unemployed people on the territory of Dve Mogili.

      The share for the registered people with higher education has decreased - they are 13. The number of the registered people without any education remains high - 323 unemployed people, who are 45,74% from the registered people. Unemployed people with secondary education are 270 and those ones with primary education are 100.

      According to the Bureau of the labor in Dve Mogili the share of the unemployed people in the villages is the highest. It is 69%.




CONCLUSIONS AND PROGNOSIS
  • no essential changes in the population are expected in short-term and average-term plans;
  • the tendencies to increasing the concentration of the population on the territory within 10km from the municipal centre will be kept;
  • the relatively stable temps for increasing the number of the urban population will be kept;
  • the number of the population in the small and distanced villages will continue decreasing.
 
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Project “Modern and Effective Administration in the municipality of Dve Mogili”. Contract А 09-31-38С/12.06.2009
Тhis project is being implemented with the financial support of Administrative Capacity Operational Programme, co-funded by the European Union through the European Social Fund.
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